Built for investment decisions
We build independent investment cases from primary sources, pressure-test the consensus, and make uncertainty explicit.
Interrogate target biology from first principles and define what must be true for a program to create equity value.
Mechanism of action · Human genetics · Biomarkers · PK/PD · Dose rationale · Translational validity
Reconstruct trial design, statistical assumptions, and clinical context to assess readout quality and investment impact.
Endpoints · Powering · Multiplicity · Control arms · Subgroups · Missing data · Safety · Clinical relevance
Read the regulatory record in context to assess approval probability, evidence standards, and catalyst risk.
FDA & EMA records · AdComm materials · Approval precedent · Development path · Submission risk
Map the field by target, asset, modality, stage, and standard of care to expose differentiation and consensus blind spots.
Pipeline mapping · Treatment landscape · Conference intelligence · Patent review · Primary research
Translate program uncertainty into explicit probabilities, scenarios, catalyst paths, and equity value.
Patient funnels · rNPV / probability-weighted DCF · Comps · Pricing & access · Cash runway · Dilution
Make the research concise, testable, and useful for portfolio managers, investment committees, and institutional clients.
Research reports · Long / short theses · Catalyst maps · Thesis breakers · Investment presentations
The Confluent research process
Every research engagement is built around the investment question—not a standard report template.
Define the market expectations, variant view, and the few assumptions that carry the most equity value.
Go to primary sources—protocols, papers, regulatory files, conference data, patents, and filings.
Triangulate biology, trial design, precedent, competition, and economics against disconfirming evidence.
Deliver the base case, variant view, catalyst path, downside risks, and clear portfolio implications.
A differentiated research lens
Confluent connects the way therapies work, the way trials are run, and the way expectations are priced—so biotech investments can be judged in the context that matters.
Protocols, statistical plans, review packages, posters, papers, patents, and filings—not recycled consensus.
Mechanism, pharmacology, PK/PD, trial operations, and patient relevance evaluated as one connected system.
Assumptions, probabilities, scenarios, and thesis breakers are surfaced—never hidden inside the model.
Clear implications for portfolio action, catalyst positioning, research priorities, and the next critical question.
Research engagements
Independent read-through ahead of clinical, regulatory, or financing events.
An independent scientific, clinical, competitive, and valuation thesis built from the ground up.
A consistent investment framework across multiple companies, assets, or indications.
Fast, primary-source assessment of new data, FDA actions, and market-moving developments.